The public sentiment about India overtaking Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy is mixed. While there is national pride and optimism about India's growing economic status, many express concerns about significant socioeconomic issues such as inequality, low GDP per capita, unemployment, and poor infrastructure. Although economic growth is celebrated as a milestone, it does not translate into improved living standards or benefits for the average citizen, due to existing challenges in wealth distribution and development.

Government of India

Japanese Government

I doubt normal Japanese people are concerned over India surpassing Japan than on rising prices for their day-to-day items.

The headline should be “Japanese economist and politicians angst as India set to…”

prtk297

Angst over what? They have 10x the population of Japan, I would expect they have a larger economy as they further develop

smorkoid

This is a non-issue and a non-story. I'm originally from India and the country, despite having built trains and bridges, is incomparable even to other developing countries like Turkey or Mexico. It's in a league of its own as to how underdeveloped it is and remains to be.

India's greatest strength seems to be foreigners believing it's capable of so much when in fact its rise is going to be quite slow. I expect it to feel underdeveloped in many aspects even decades from now because people outside rarely understand the scope of its entrenched problems and issues.

magnusdeus123

Its a surprisingly useless article by DW, India's Economy is already 3x the size of Japan, which isn't bad for Japan though and Japan has 12x less people than India.

[IMF GDP PPP Data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) + [Informal Economy data](https://archive.ph/mBijZ) = India's Economy is approximately $20.3T, Japan's $7.3T.

For anyone wondering why GDP PPP instead of unadjusted and raw Nominal GDP: ''The major use of PPPs is as a first step in making inter-country comparisons in real terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and its component expenditures''[-OECD](https://www.oecd.org/sdd/purchasingpowerparities-frequentlyaskedquestionsfaqs.htm#FAQ3)

''The right metric for international comparisons is purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted output. This corrects for exchange rate fluctuations and differences in various national prices.'' [-Bruegel](https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-unions-remarkable-growth-performance-relative-united-states)

There are many more relevant Economic Organisations and Economists talking about this and why Nominal GDP is not how to measure the size of an economy but i don't want to ''spam'' links here, the above quoted organisations have dozends of member states, Japan is a member of OECD too.

_CHIFFRE

donarudotorampu69

I’m Japanese but I never heard of anyone around me concerned about an economy of a country with 12 times the population as ours surpassing. It’s totally different from a country with 2/3 of the population and is in a recession surpassing our economy. The main concern is that our international projection would deteriorate which would make us difficult to influence the decision making process of new international norms. I personally am not concerned about it much because Indian philosophy and values are quite similar to that of Japan compared to European and middle eastern countries.

ConsiderationOk9190

JapaneseAngst

Yeah, really angsty about having indoor plumbing and a reliable electricity grid.

[deleted]

Yeah I know a lot of people in Japan experiencing a ton of worry on the daily about how the economy of the most populous country (and roughly 10x or more the population of Japan) compares to their own. That's what the citizens are thinkin about!

Particular_Stop_3332

Now compare GDP per capital. And see how the countries compare. Also number of people under the poverty line.

Tango-Down-167

[dw.com](https://dw.com) link wasn't working for me briefly, so here's another one - 

[https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/India-to-surpass-Japan-as-4th-largest-economy-in-2025-IMF-says](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/India-to-surpass-Japan-as-4th-largest-economy-in-2025-IMF-says)

&amp;#x200B;

The top 3 are now US, China and India.

thesunbeamslook

People still believe stats coming out of China and India? Spending a month in either place will make you think twice about real GDP.

POpportunity6336

I worked with Indians, it's a failed communist country pretending to be a democracy.

CaptainKobayashi

Apologies if my comment is out of topic but as an Indian who just came back from her Japan trip, I was ecstatic that I could finally divide a foreign currency by 2 while calculating how much it is in rupees instead of multiplying and having my heart broken. It was insane that a first world country was as cheap/ cheaper than India (food, convenience store stuff, clothes, trains, etc).

theninefan

Japan you have nothing to worry about. India is not even close to Japan

Ambitious-Pirate-505

I am a Japanese. I don't mind GDP of India. They have 10 times more population. Germany has less population and working hours of Germany is less than Japanese. It make me annoyed.

hogie12345

China and India should have 7x~10x GDP against Japan because of population, like USA(almost 2x).

Haruka-Oh

GDP and quality of life are totally separate issues... Even if China or india passes up the US, the'll do it by polluting their country. If China was doing so well, why are they beginning to blast water cannons at Philippine military vessels and fishing boats. They recognize that unless they take some serious bullying tactics and continue to push into the south china sea, the standards of living will continue to drop as it has since covid. Taiwan would be a suicide mission for China as well because even if they took Taiwan, the Taiwanese would self sabotage and refuse to implement their chip production, leaving China well behind. China imports over 80% of their chips from Taiwan and Ji understands that this is the best relationship that they will have and and invasion would be absolutely catastrophic to the Chinese gov and people a whole

Revolutionary_Area51

If Japan were really serious at fighting this (as well as the birth rate) allowing and accepting foreign labour is the only real answer. Remove restrictions on half children (forcing them to choose at 20) and allow residents who naturalize the right to keep their original citizenship. Watch the numbers change within a few short years.

But this is all a pipe dream, we all know that Japan doesn't want change. Some very much still act as though the black ships are in Tokyo harbour.

DM-15

There is sooo much FUD about Japan it is comical. People really lack the financial literacy to understand what is going on in general. Japan is still the 4th largest economy on the planet. Could be worse.

greyspurv

Lolll this seems overly sensitive. Circle of life angsty people. Viking, Romans, Egyptians, British all been through it.

throw_away_17381

That's what you get for being subservient to the Americans, for god sake have some spine

sulitipid2

Haha! How low can you go! Oh but a weak yen is such a GOOD idea! Hell ya keep going.

shinjikun10

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I may be downvoted by my fellow Indians, but this needs to be said. The Government needs to take more initiative to encourage civic sense in our people. We may be the 4th largest economy in the world now, but the civic sense we have belongs in the last 30 countries. 

Swach Bharat Abhiyan was supposed to encourage civic sense and cleanliness, but it was a political gimick in the end. Alot of yall are too comfortable throwning trash, bottles, Chips Packets, and alot more outta the cars that you travel in.

dontstealmydinner

This is not a bad news but we need to improve our per capita GDP, among other things. We have a long way to go. Being such a huge economy is just a function of our population. 

nishitd

You have to be amazed at the economic miracle Japan created from the 50s to the 80s. 

An resource poor island with small amount of farm land become at the peak close to become the largest economy in the world. After more than 30 years of stagnation it's still the number 5 economy in the world.

Logical_Welder3467

While this (and soon to be 3rd larges in 2-3 years) is surely a good news, we must keep our heads down and work hard.  
I hope our governments make policies to make our cities more liveable, more infrastructure spending on metro/commuter rails, public transport and less freebies.  
We have come a long way since 1940s, but much more yet to be done.  
Congratulations to my fellow Indians. :)

Edit: Not sure what I said that merits downvotes! I am not even remotely critical lmao.

MrTransport_d24549e

For all the people commenting about poor per capita performance, Relax! It’s part of the journey. India’s economic growth rate is significantly higher than fertility. Which literally translates to improving per capita GDP. It’s only matter of time that gap is closed significantly.

abhi_nahar

Another way to look at it- 18% of world population and 3.5% of world GDP. Also massive inequality- The top 5% own more than 60% of the country’s wealth.

EstimateSecure7407

Yes we need to improve my friends but why so pessimistic. Gdp is what matters most in geopolitics there's a reason why Finland isn't more important than China in world politics. Obviously we need to work hard to change that aswell

Own-Location3815

India and the United States, funnily, share the same Wealth Distribution Gap. The largest economy versus the fourth largest economy isn't as important if the commonalities are:

India - Largest "democracy" 
- Top 10%: Own 77% of total wealth
- Top 1%: Own 40.5% of total wealth
- Bottom 50%: Own 2% of total wealth

United States - Bastion of the "free" market 
- Top 10%: Own 70% of total wealth
- Top 1%: Own 32% of total wealth
- Bottom 50%: Own 2% of total wealth

And these numbers are public figures, and also, out of date - the real shiz is MUCH worse.

So sure, fourth '"largest" economy. Yay.

stickfigure

vall1_satori

Trolling-Stones

This is a very weird comment section not what I expected

Expensive-Method4252

Wtf is this comment section lmao just be happy you weirdos

Jazzlike_Method_7642

Inevitable-Aide-8463

What's interesting to me is that a Germany with a sluggish economy and dismal growth for the last few years, and with about 60% of the population, is now a bigger economy than Japan. Illustrative of how far the Japanese have fallen off. The Japanese economy was twice the size of the German one in the mid 90s.

I know much of that is the persistent weakness of the yen, but still.

Alternative_Switch39

Achievement for sure, but GDP per capital is 1/5 of China's.


If India can get it's industrial policy straightened out (like China), capital injections can super boost it to the moon in the mid 21st century.

BoppoTheClown

nateguo

Unique_acar

zoror0301

Mynameisdoctor05

To any per capita merchants

Gdp per capita grows as gdp growa

Substantial-Bee-6324

As if no one saw that comping. Japan is practically imploding 

Shahariar_909

The country with the worst economy is Tuvalu

Foxtrot_Uniform_CK69

I know we are a long way to go. Especially since there is still so much poverty and wealth gap.

But in the words of Kevin Malone from the office: "It's nice to win one"

s_j_t

What economic reforms are necessary to push India towards a tiger state?

DumbledoresShampoo

We sure are backward in terms of politics, infrastructure, civic sense and basic amenities for a country which is the fourth largest economy.

coocoointhehead

Japan has been around for a long time, building a strong financial foundation,
investing in high-tech industries, and ensuring that most of its people have a
comfortable life. India, on the other hand, is a younger, fast-growing family
with a lot of potential but also a lot of members to take care of.


Now, India has recently overtaken Japan in terms of total GDP meaning the
overall size of its economy is bigger. But here's the catch--when you divide
that money among all the people, the average income per person in Japan is
still way higher than in India. It's like saying one family earns ₹10 lakh a month
but has 100 members, while another earns ₹8 lakh but has only 10 members
The smaller family will still have more money per person.


Japan also has a more developed infrastructure- better roads, transport,
healthcare, and education systems. India is improving fast, but it still has a
long way to go in terms of making life better for everyone, not just growing the
economy on paper.


So, while India is rising quickly, surpassing Japan in total GDP doesn't mean it
has surpassed Japan in terms of quality of life, income levels, or overall
development. It's like winning a race but realizing there's still another lap to go
before reaching the finish line. India has the potential to catch up, but it needs
to focus on improving education, healthcare, and job opportunities to truly
surpass Japan in every sense

ernestochauhan

Considering they have over 1 billion people I’d say theyre still well behind the curve

KlutzyAd5729

By PPP they already have

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

diacewrb

Since GDP in dollar terms is greatly affected by exchange rates, if the yen were to return from 150 yen to around 100–120 yen per dollar, the short-term rankings over the next several years will be a bit complicated.

nezeta

Why is their civil awareness is at the bottom, when they are winning so much like orange man

otherwise_president

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Gari_305:

---

From the Article

&gt;India is set to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy, according to S&amp;P Global and Morgan Stanley.  
&gt;  
&gt;S&amp;P’s forecast is based on the projection that India’s annual nominal gross domestic product growth will average 6.3% through 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s GDP is likely to more than double from current levels by 2031.  
&gt;  
&gt;“India has the conditions in place for an economic boom fueled by offshoring, investment in manufacturing, the energy transition, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Ridham Desai and Girish Acchipalia wrote in the report.

---

 Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/z9mlj7/india_may_become_the_third_largest_economy_by/iyhebla/

FuturologyBot

So how does one make money from this new projection?

ebenezerz10

Far too much corruption and loose control by the central government; India might overtake Japan or Germany, but only because of the volume of commerce and definitely not the quality of commerce. 

I doubt India can ever match the explosive growth we see in China, There are far too many issues India needs to resolve first before it can even be considered ready for that level of industrialization.

Don't talk to me about any "by 2030" predictions. These days you can't predict what happens in one or two years. Get out.

dcooper8

Gotta get back to speaking Hindi again. Socially working on it is sort of tough since I'm not dating those guys anymore. I've also moved away from my Indian neighbors I grew up next to. Celebrating Diwali with them was always a blast. 

Oh yeah, knowing Hindi in Silicon Valley can sometimes pay off.   ｡⁠◕⁠‿⁠◕⁠｡

MsPI1996

I mean...

They've got over a billion more people than Germany and Japan combined...

It's kind of weird their economy is still less than either of them

this comment's section a mess, to absolutely no one's surprise

ig before you make a comment, you should probably know that India gained independence 75 years ago and that liberalization started around 35 years back

CarbonatedInsidious

Dear children of colonisers and natives killer.

India and China were the richest counties for most of the history. It is natural that they will eventually become again. It may take 10 years, 20 years, 50 years.
No matter how your East Indian company gene prompt you to write about water, caste, corruption, sanitation etc, it will eventually happen. 
So let’s try to be little less racist (than your forefathers). We don’t see you as enemy. We still love you

Being the largest economy dont mean shit when you have poor life quality. Just look how bigger india is compared to japan and germany

mgzaun

Would be strange if they weren’t. Just compare their populations

trele_morele

This is a surprise to no one given India's population and growth trajectory. However, the comments here sure are a mask off event given how many are talking about scam call centres, toilets, caste system etc. It's like reddit folks see a news about India and can't help but stereotype. If everyone associated US with school shootings and obesity, Germany with holocaust, Japan with atrocities that would have been pretty freaking irrational and stereotyping. But no it's India so let's bring out our pitchforks. What a sad existence! And that too in a subreddit named "futurology". Smh.

anirudh_1

All the racists out here pretending to be masters of economics don't realise India growing means millions of people coming out of poverty. India already is growing much faster then most countries. Infrastructure/quality of life everything improves as india grows. So stfu

In regards to the country's economic value in terms of purchasing power of parity (GDP in PPP), it already IS the third-largest economy.

Gweriniaeth_Prydain

To all the westerners and Americans here, if you can't wish better for india don't wish bad either. No need to be Racist or hateful because progress of india will eventually help your nation too. How? Better india less illegal immigrants or legal immigrants it will eventually help your nation because if india fails with such massive population imagine how many indians will be coming to europe and other nations due to lack of opportunities in india and it will make you cry why indians are taking your jobs. So it's in your best interest to see a developed india. Btw, even indians are immigrants they are the best immigrants they don't cause problems like others they work and contribute. Least in crime and best in contributing.

Atheist_Potatoo

"Super power 2030" will be the new meme i guess, after 2020 didn't became a reality

Picolete

California Poised to Overtake Germany as World’s No. 4 Economy

rickabe

It already is the third biggest economy,  based on purchasing power parity. The world Bank, the United nations , the IMF, and the CIA all use PPP as a more accurate metric than gdp.

Also, China has had a bigger economy than the US for around 5 years

Rockstar89999

I mean the thing that matters is how the economy is doing per capita.  Given the number of people, the standard of living will still be far below the other countries mentioned.

greybruce1980

India still has a long way to go but this is good news.

I look forward to seeing how it grows over the next 20 years.

Blue__Agave

Mostly ignorant comments here from people who's only sources of information about India has been American shows and movies or some one of experiences or experiences from 20 years ago. 

As someone working in Europe and also worked in India not more than 2 years ago, I can tell you, the efficiency and speed at which innovation in India is happening is 10x speedier than Europe. Obviously, EU also has some other advantages. And bureaucracy is basically same as EU just different kind of problems.

And as usual, ignorant Americans and Europeans unaware about genocides, atrocities and loot committed by themselves. Pure lack of education at display, pathetic at best.

kbad10

Or maybe it won’t.

Remember when we were told twenty years ago that the BRICS were going to rule the world? Except Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa didn’t get the memo.

They are not going to have a long shot at it if Climate change is not taken seriously. Huge swath of India will become nearly inhospitable (wet-bulbe temperature) to human life by the end of the century...

Tarquin_Revan

Lol yeah right. $500 gift cards to surpass Japan and Germany? Thats a lot of gift cards.

charliethecorso

The QUESTION IS: 
does bigger economy translates to better welfare and living conditions?

lucytulip17

People have been saying this about India for a long time.

Personally I think there are too many geopolitical barriers and uneven balance of wealth thats hindering India from becoming a globally influencing superpower.

Bronze_Rager

I lived in India around 1997-2000, I was there when they reached a billion people, and I have been reading, hearing and discussing this headline (huge economic growth in India) countless times over the years. Knowing the people and politics I think they will not. It‘s like the argument that feasable fusion energy is always only 20 years away or so.

Wavster

Yall until elitism,corruption and worshipping celebrities and politicians doesn't step down,no matter which country we overtake in economy doesn't mean we get better and standard living and working conditions.
The rich keep getting richer, while others squabble under their feet.

Billyhasdick

Posting anything good about India on Reddit is useless. Most people here are incredibly racist and rude towards Indians with their impression of everyone being the bobs vagena or call center scammer group (as if their country doesn’t have things we hate). Either way, everytime something positive is shared, people flock to make sure they comment something to remind the rest of the world how despicable India is.

generation_chaos

Cue all the racist and ignorant comments about India.

Why can't we have a post which is positive about India without such comments?

CowboyAndIndian

But we have a population of 1.5 billion. Isn't it surprising we are fifth largest economy still! 
We should have been 3rd by now!

Unique-Ring-1323

With 1.4 billion citizens, and half the size of the US.

But California, with only around 35 million citizens, is on track to outstrip Germany for 4th largest economy globally, go figure…

infernalmongoose769

India and China have very different demographics with India having more young people.  When will they overtake China?

itsallrighthere

India is always "just 10 years from being a super power"

ChromeFlesh

Or it might not since a war nearby might be a problem.

trevormeadows

Simple.  Japan and Germany are experiencing a population decline.  People are needed for the value found in goods and services.  No people, no wealth.

SpaceshipEarth10

&gt; India accounts for almost 8 million or 20%, making it the largest absolute contributor to modern slavery.

how do one get into the slavery business.

atav1k

Yes India is evolving on many industries and adopting fast peace. 
Thanks to the current government for good work on an international level. 
Still Indians have to evolve more to understand the Indian economy and make it better rather than moving out abroad.

sagbit_programmer

India's economy was the largest for arround 1750 years, almost contributing to around 35% of the world's GDP. And then came the British and stripped us naked not only on the economical front, but on education, culture and and community. By 2030, we are just showing that we have the dam capacity to come back to what we were. 
Nothing new about being the largest by 2030 :-)

binterbanter

India is not using its full potential, we must end all subsidies and use that money to fuel R&amp;D and quality education.

I can't stress it enough but our R&amp;D budget should be at least 5% of our GDP every year. Currently its below 1%.

Overpower1601

Mean-Astronaut-555

India has overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally, showcasing decades of steady growth and resilience. This economic milestone reflects India's burgeoning role in global economics despite ongoing challenges such as inequality. The achievement underscores India's potential to move up the ranks further, spotlighting demographic dynamics and strategic growth policies.

India-Overtaking Japan as World’s Fourth-Largest Economy

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